- Written by Super User Super User
- Published: 15 November 2012 15 November 2012
He was a reviewer of the Workgroup I (Climate Science) section of the IPCC AR4. In 2007 he was lead author and co-editor of the Westminster Briefing ‘Feedback Dynamics and the Acceleration of Climate Change’ delivered to the All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group. A comprehensive archive of his presentations and published work is available at: www.meridian.org.uk/Resources.htm and www.apollo-gaia.org
In the lead-up to the Copenhagen Climate Summit of December 2009, he was deeply involved in (and presented at) a series of high-level international briefings, seminars and conferences, with participants from civil society and the scientific, political, and business communities. More recently, David has given keynote presentations in China, Switzerland and the UK. The main conclusions of the Apollo-Gaia Project were initially presented to the 3rd Global Conference on Global Warming in Lisbon (July 2011). Since then further significant advances have been made which will be made public at the 4th Global Conference on Global Warming to be held in Istanbul just prior to Rio 20+. Key developments include:
* The numerical value of the Earth System Sensitivity has been more sharply defined with convergence of four independent methodological approaches.
* Levels of uncertainty around the value have been greatly reduced.
* A strong non-linear relationship between sensitivity and the feedback factor has been identified and quantified.
* The boundary conditions determining the critical threshold (or tipping point) between equilibrating outcomes and self-amplifying (runaway) behaviour in the global climate system have also been identified and quantified.
* Several factors brought into operation in the current conditions of rapid change and far-from equilibrium behaviour have been identified. These were not significant in the paleological conditions of slow and close to equilibrium dynamics. They act to amplify system sensitivity and propel behaviour much closer to (or across) the critical threshold of self-amplification.
* A set of other factors, which serve over the long term to saturate and damp the temporary period of runaway behaviour, has been mapped.
* Correlations, consequences and strategic implications of the analysis for our world community continue to be developed.
He is the Founding Director of the Unit for Research into Changing Institutions (URCHIN), a registered UK charitable trust. Since 1987 he has been the International Coordinator of the Meridian Programme (formerly the Manhattan Project of Behavioural Science). He specialises in consultancy-research with a wide range of institutions and organisations undergoing rapid change in conditions of low resource and high stress.